U.S. National

U.S. National Forecasts
Entries for Influenza Model Selection

This 2019-2020 project ends on March 11th due to COVID-19

COVID-19 Forecasts begin the following week

Selections were due Wednesday, March 11th at 10:00 PM

This week's Forecasting Models, Epidemiological Curves, Worksheets and Ballots have been uploaded

Please scroll down to begin making your selections

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Influenza Epidemic Curves

Data Source: CDC FluView
Note: Additional influenza data (such as the number of hospitalizations and number of positive tests by type/subtype) are available on CDC FluView website

Some people may prefer to view these epidemiological curves as part of a MS Word Worksheet. The Worksheet may also be helpful if you think one of these epicurves on this page are incorrect. The worksheet can be downloaded from the home page.

Influenza Models Selection

Some people may prefer to complete the ballot in MS Word and submit via email. The Word document allows the user to click on lines and points to see the actual values which produced the curves. The MS Word ballot may also be helpful if you think one or more of the probability distributions on this page are incorrect. The MS Word ballot can be downloaded from the home page.

One Week ahead: The figure above shows the probability distributions for weighted ILI% (see link on index page for an explanation). For this contest, points are awarded based on the amount of probability assigned to the eventual wILI% value reported by CDC. Points are only awarded for the correct bin.

Delphi Epicast	Delphi STAT	LANL Danteplus	CU Albatross
Kernel of Truth	UA EpiCos	FluOutlook MechAug

Two Weeks ahead: The figure above shows the probability distributions for wILI% . For this contest, points are awarded based on the amount of probability assigned to the eventual wILI% value reported by CDC. Points are only awarded for the correct bin.

Delphi Epicast	Delphi STAT	LANL Danteplus	CU Albatross
Kernel of Truth	UA EpiCos	FluOutlook MechAug

Three Weeks ahead: The figure above shows the probability distributions for wILI% . For this contest, points are awarded based on the amount of probability assigned to the eventual wILI% value reported by CDC. Points are only awarded for the correct bin.

Delphi Epicast	Delphi STAT	LANL Danteplus	CU Albatross
Kernel of Truth	UA EpiCos	FluOutlook MechAug

Four Weeks ahead: The figure above shows the probability distributions for wILI% . For this contest, points are awarded based on the amount of probability assigned to the eventual wILI% value reported by CDC. Points are only awarded for the correct bin.

Delphi Epicast	Delphi STAT	LANL Danteplus	CU Albatross
Kernel of Truth	UA EpiCos	FluOutlook MechAug

Season Onset: National season onset is when the wILI% goes above the national baseline of 2.4% for three consecutive weeks for the season. The figure above shows each model's probability distribution for the season onset occurring each week. For this contest, points are awarded based on the amount of probability assigned to the season onset week, as indicated by the wILI% value reported by CDC. Points are only awarded for the correct week.

Delphi Epicast	Delphi STAT	LANL Danteplus	CU Albatross
Kernel of Truth	UA EpiCos	FluOutlook MechAug

Season Peak Week: The figure above shows each model's probability distributions for the peak week occurring in each week. For this contest, points are awarded based on the amount of probability assigned to the season peak week, as indicated by the wILI% value reported by CDC. Points are only awarded for the correct week.

Delphi Epicast	Delphi STAT	LANL Danteplus	CU Albatross
Kernel of Truth	UA EpiCos	FluOutlook MechAug

Season Peak Percentage: The figure above shows each model's probability distributions for peak wILI%. For this contest, points are awarded based on the amount of probability assigned to the peak wILI% value for this season, as reported by CDC. Points are only awarded for the correct bin.

Delphi Epicast	Delphi STAT	LANL Danteplus	CU Albatross
Kernel of Truth	UA EpiCos	FluOutlook MechAug

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